SpaceX IPO Oversubscribed, But Let's Talk About What That Actually Means for Robotics

Now, I'll be honest, I don't know the exact valuation they're targeting. Bloomberg's been cagey on specifics, or at least the pieces I've seen haven't nailed down a number. But "well oversubscribed" and "multiple times the shares available" tells you what you need to know about market appetite.

The industrial robotics incumbents (and yes, I still think of Kuka as one even though Midea owns them now) have been operating on the assumption that humanoid robots are a decade away from serious deployment. That assumption is based on sound engineering judgment. Bipedal locomotion is genuinely difficult. Manipulation in unstructured environments remains largely unsolved. The sensor fusion required for real-world autonomy is, in a way, harder than anything SpaceX does with rockets.

But engineering timelines have a way of compressing when you throw enough money and talent at them. I've seen it happen. The KUKA LBR iiwa took us nearly eight years from concept to production. A well-funded startup today could probably do it in three.

It's too early to say whether this IPO changes the competitive landscape for industrial automation. Remains unclear how much of that capital will flow toward robotics versus satellites versus whatever else Musk decides to build next week. But if I were running strategy at ABB or Fanuc right now, I'd be paying attention.

The financial press will move on to the next shiny object by Friday. Those of us who actually build things should probably keep watching.

Robert "Bob" Macintosh · Yesterday · 4 min