SpaceX at $2 Trillion: Are We Watching a Rocket or a Bubble?

When I was running production lines, we used to joke that software people thought manufacturing was just "the easy part after the design." Then they'd visit the floor and see what actually goes into building something physical at scale. Their faces were always priceless.

The Anthropic comparison is interesting. Same Bloomberg segment mentioned Anthropic closing a round at $965 billion, which apparently puts them ahead of OpenAI now. That's a whole other conversation, but it does make you think about how we're valuing companies that are essentially selling futures. SpaceX is selling the future of space. Anthropic is selling the future of AI. Neither has delivered the full vision yet. Both are asking for valuations that assume they will.

I called my old colleague Werner last week (he's still consulting for European aerospace suppliers), and he made a point I can't stop thinking about. He said, "Bob, the question isn't whether SpaceX is impressive. Of course it's impressive. The question is whether $2 trillion impressive is the same as $500 billion impressive." And honestly, I don't know the answer.

What I do know is this. The industrial companies I understand, the ones building robots and automation systems, trade at much more modest multiples. Fanuc, ABB, Siemens, they're all profitable, all shipping real products, all valued at fractions of what SpaceX is asking. Now, you could argue space is different, the TAM is bigger, the growth potential is higher. Maybe. But the execution risk is also higher. One bad launch, one satellite constellation failure, one regulatory crackdown, and that valuation evaporates.

Is Wall Street rushing in too fast? Bloomberg asked that question directly, and I think it's the right one. The answer remains unclear, at least to me. I've been wrong before. I thought collaborative robots were overhyped in 2015, and look at them now. But I've also been right. I thought a lot of the "Industry 4.0" hype was premature, and, well, it was.

My advice, for whatever it's worth: if you're thinking about buying into this IPO, make sure you understand what you're actually buying. Not the dream. The actual business. The revenue. The margins. The competitive landscape. The regulatory environment. If you can't explain those things without using the word "Mars," maybe wait for the S-1.

Mark Kowalski · Yesterday · 6 min